Introduction
SolarAnywhere has developed a Probabilistic Forecast that can provide P1 – P99 values for day-ahead markets. This capability allows end users to better manage financial risk in non-symmetric cost models for weather risks for PV assets in complex climate zones. Currently, the probabilistic forecast supports GHI and POAI output fields, with support for more output fields such as power modeling coming in the future.
Methodology
The SolarAnywhere Probabilistic forecast was created using a probabilistic mixture-of-experts model architecture. To train the model, we ingested features from several numerical weather predictors (NWPs) and minimized the negative log-likelihood loss between predicted irradiance and ground truth irradiance measurements. We also evaluated feature importance across more than 60 inputs to identify which had the most influence on prediction accuracy.
For more information on the validation of the probabilistic forecast product, see the validation whitepaper. If you would like access to hindcasts of the probabilistic forecast for validation at your locations, these are available back to 2021. These hindcasts are not generated deterministically, so values may vary per hindcast call.
Technical Specifications
The Probabilistic Forecast supports day-ahead operations with coverage up to 40 hours in the future. You can also refer to our Postman Collection for API details.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Output Fields |
Global Horizonal Irradiance (GHI) Plane of Array Irradiance (POAI) |
| Forecast Horizon | 1 – 36 hours from start time |
| Forecast Start Time | 2021 (hindcast) to 4 hours in the future |
| Spatial Resolution | ~3 km |
| Temporal Resolution | 60 minutes |
| Geographic Coverage | Contiguous United States (CONUS) |
| Probabilities | 1 – 99 |
| API Access | API Key; Asynchronous |
How to Access
Access to the SolarAnywhere® probabilistic forecast is available as a trial and included in the Advanced Forecast license. Probabilistic forecasts are accessible via the SolarAnywhere API.
The SolarAnywhere API works asynchronously, meaning you’ll submit a POST request, retrieve a unique ID associated with the POST request, and use that ID at any time to retrieve the results. It’s important to note that a valid SolarAnywhere API key is required to access data via the API. For instructions on creating API keys, please visit the SolarAnywhere API page of our support center.
Detailed instructions on this data retrieval process are available within the API documentation.
If you need assistance getting started with probabilistic forecasts, please contact us at support@solaranywhere.com.