Solar Prediction

Developers, utilities and independent system operators depend on accurate time-series solar irradiance data for project siting, planning and operations. Groundbreaking solar prediction research quantifies the accuracy of PV output modeling, solar irradiance data and irradiance forecasting, as well as describing methods for modeling high-speed PV output variability.

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Accuracy of Satellite-Derived Solar Irradiance Data, Solar Irradiance Forecasts & PV Performance Models

This research provides government researchers, utilities, independent system operators and developers information on PV power output models and methods of calculating and quantifying the accuracy of satellite-derived solar irradiance data for specific applications.

2019

Investigations of Site-Specific, Long Term Average Albedo Determination for Accurate Bifacial System Energy Modeling

As interest in bifacial PV modules grows, there is a need to quantify the impact of additional energy generation for...

Improved PV System Modeling with ML-Based Power Model: Case Study of a Commercial Building

Solar PV system specifications are critical to accurately modeling PV system production (along with high-quality...

2018

Improved model of solar resource variability based on regional aggregation and climate zones

This paper provides the results of using an alternative method to calculate annual insolation probability of...

2016

Day-Ahead Irradiance Forecast Variability Characterization Using Satellite Data

This article calculates day-head forecast variability as function of historical clearness index based on intraday...

Solar Energy Forecast Validation for Extended Areas & Economic Impact of Forecast Accuracy

This article evaluates the accuracy of solar forecast models, including SolarAnywhere®, as a function of geographic...

2015

Satellite-to-Irradiance Modeling – A New Version of the SUNY Model

This article presents and validates the latest version of the SUNY model for using satellite imagery to calculate...

2013

CEC PIER Project: Demonstration and Validation of PV Output Variability Modeling Approach

The California Energy Commission’s Public Interest Energy Research (CEC PIER) program awarded Clean Power Research a...

Operational Improvements in the Performance of the SUNY Satellite-to-Solar Irradiance Model Using Satellite Infrared Channels

This paper summarizes operational improvements to the existing SUNY satellite-to-solar irradiance model used to...

2012

Solar Monitoring, Forecasting and Variability Assessment at SMUD

This paper summarizes the deployment of a 71 station solar monitoring network in Sacramento, Calif., and its use in...

Predicting Short-term Variability of High Penetration PV

This article evaluates the ability of three operational satellite models (SolarAnywhere® Standard, Enhanced, and High...

Reporting of Irradiance Model Relative Errors

Metrics used in assessing irradiance model accuracy such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error...

Evaluating Irradiance Accuracy Using California ISO Data: Lessons Learned

This presentation provides the results of a study evaluating the short, medium and long-term accuracy of irradiance...

2010

Validation of Short & Medium Term Operational Solar Radiation Forecasts in the U.S.

This paper presents a validation of the short- and medium-term global irradiance forecasts that are produced as part...

Validation of PV Performance Models Using Satellite-based Irradiance Measurements: A Case Study

This paper presents a study of how PV performance model results are affected when satellite-based weather data is used...

2004

Field Validation of the Clean Power Estimator’s Obstruction Analysis Algorithm

This paper validates the Clean Power Estimator obstruction analysis algorithm based on results produced by the Solar...

2003

Validation of a Simplified PV Simulation Engine

This paper describes and validates a simple PV simulation model capable of predicting average PV output as a function...

Investigations of Site-Specific, Long Term Average Albedo Determination for Accurate Bifacial System Energy Modeling

As interest in bifacial PV modules grows, there is a need to quantify the impact of additional energy generation for...

Improved PV System Modeling with ML-Based Power Model: Case Study of a Commercial Building

Solar PV system specifications are critical to accurately modeling PV system production (along with high-quality...

Improved model of solar resource variability based on regional aggregation and climate zones

This paper provides the results of using an alternative method to calculate annual insolation probability of...

Detecting Calibration Drift at Ground Truth Stations: A Demonstration of Satellite Irradiance Models’ Accuracy
Day-Ahead Irradiance Forecast Variability Characterization Using Satellite Data

This article calculates day-head forecast variability as function of historical clearness index based on intraday...

Solar Energy Forecast Validation for Extended Areas & Economic Impact of Forecast Accuracy

This article evaluates the accuracy of solar forecast models, including SolarAnywhere®, as a function of geographic...

Satellite-to-Irradiance Modeling – A New Version of the SUNY Model

This article presents and validates the latest version of the SUNY model for using satellite imagery to calculate...

CEC PIER Project: Demonstration and Validation of PV Output Variability Modeling Approach

The California Energy Commission’s Public Interest Energy Research (CEC PIER) program awarded Clean Power Research a...

Operational Improvements in the Performance of the SUNY Satellite-to-Solar Irradiance Model Using Satellite Infrared Channels

This paper summarizes operational improvements to the existing SUNY satellite-to-solar irradiance model used to...

Solar Monitoring, Forecasting and Variability Assessment at SMUD

This paper summarizes the deployment of a 71 station solar monitoring network in Sacramento, Calif., and its use in...

Predicting Short-term Variability of High Penetration PV

This article evaluates the ability of three operational satellite models (SolarAnywhere® Standard, Enhanced, and High...

Reporting of Irradiance Model Relative Errors

Metrics used in assessing irradiance model accuracy such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error...

Evaluating Irradiance Accuracy Using California ISO Data: Lessons Learned

This presentation provides the results of a study evaluating the short, medium and long-term accuracy of irradiance...

Validation of Short & Medium Term Operational Solar Radiation Forecasts in the U.S.

This paper presents a validation of the short- and medium-term global irradiance forecasts that are produced as part...

Validation of PV Performance Models Using Satellite-based Irradiance Measurements: A Case Study

This paper presents a study of how PV performance model results are affected when satellite-based weather data is used...

Field Validation of the Clean Power Estimator’s Obstruction Analysis Algorithm

This paper validates the Clean Power Estimator obstruction analysis algorithm based on results produced by the Solar...

Validation of a Simplified PV Simulation Engine

This paper describes and validates a simple PV simulation model capable of predicting average PV output as a function...

Combining Solar Satellite & Ground Data to Reduce Solar Project Uncertainty

These papers highlight the benefit of combining high-quality solar ground data with satellite derived solar irradiance data to reduce solar project uncertainty.

2016

Importance of Input Data and Uncertainty Associated with Tuning Satellite to Ground Solar Irradiation

Although the uncertainty of satellite data such as SolarAnywhere® Data has been shown to be low, it can be challenging...

On the Ability of Ground Based Global Horizontal Irradiance Measurements to Reduce Error in Satellite Derived Plane of Array Irradiance data for Fixed Tilt Photovoltaic Power Plants

This paper quantifies the residual errors in plane of array irradiance (POAI) at locations where ground-measured GHI...

2015

Combining Satellite and Ground Data: What Works & What Doesn’t

In this presentation, you'll learn about which type of solar irradiance data—typical year, ground or satellite—is...

Reducing Solar Project Uncertainty with an Optimized Resource Assessment Tuning Methodology

This paper describes procedures suitable for the optimal combination of ground-based and satellite-based irradiance...

Importance of Input Data and Uncertainty Associated with Tuning Satellite to Ground Solar Irradiation

Although the uncertainty of satellite data such as SolarAnywhere® Data has been shown to be low, it can be challenging...

On the Ability of Ground Based Global Horizontal Irradiance Measurements to Reduce Error in Satellite Derived Plane of Array Irradiance data for Fixed Tilt Photovoltaic Power Plants

This paper quantifies the residual errors in plane of array irradiance (POAI) at locations where ground-measured GHI...

Combining Satellite and Ground Data: What Works & What Doesn’t

In this presentation, you'll learn about which type of solar irradiance data—typical year, ground or satellite—is...

Reducing Solar Project Uncertainty with an Optimized Resource Assessment Tuning Methodology

This paper describes procedures suitable for the optimal combination of ground-based and satellite-based irradiance...

Determining the Value of Photovoltaic (PV) Solar Power Using Solar Prediction & Data Modeling

Solar developers and utility planners are often faced with the task of determining the solar energy output & economic value of one or more PV systems. This research offers insights into the solar energy value assessment process.

2016

Solar Energy Forecast Validation for Extended Areas & Economic Impact of Forecast Accuracy

This article evaluates the accuracy of solar forecast models, including SolarAnywhere®, as a function of geographic...

2012

Off-Shore Wind and Grid-Connected PV: High Penetration Peak Shaving for New York City

This article presents an experimental evaluation of the combined effective capacity of off-shore wind and...

2010

Valuing a Portfolio of PV Investments

This presentation describes the importance of PV output variability as a factor in calculating the value of a fleet of...

Weather Adjusted Performance Guarantees

This paper describes how to generate more accurate Weather-Adjusted Performance Guarantees for PV systems using a...

2008

Shining on the Big Apple: Satisfying New York City’s Peak Electrical Needs with PV

This presentation describes how measured data was used to evaluate the potential of PV to satisfy the electrical needs...

Solar Energy Forecast Validation for Extended Areas & Economic Impact of Forecast Accuracy

This article evaluates the accuracy of solar forecast models, including SolarAnywhere®, as a function of geographic...

Off-Shore Wind and Grid-Connected PV: High Penetration Peak Shaving for New York City

This article presents an experimental evaluation of the combined effective capacity of off-shore wind and...

Valuing a Portfolio of PV Investments

This presentation describes the importance of PV output variability as a factor in calculating the value of a fleet of...

Weather Adjusted Performance Guarantees

This paper describes how to generate more accurate Weather-Adjusted Performance Guarantees for PV systems using a...

Shining on the Big Apple: Satisfying New York City’s Peak Electrical Needs with PV

This presentation describes how measured data was used to evaluate the potential of PV to satisfy the electrical needs...

Forecasting Solar Irradiance With High-Penetration Distributed Photovoltaics (PV)

The intermittent nature of solar energy using PV requires utilities and independent system operators to adapt their planning, scheduling and operating strategies to maintain grid reliability and get the most value out of installed PV resources. These papers describe projects that use advanced methodologies to forecast high-penetration PV fleet solar energy output, and integrate solar energy forecasts into grid system operations.

2019

Extending Fleet Forecasting Capability into the Probabilistic Realm

This presentation demonstrates how a new approach to PV fleet forecasting can address the problem of artificially high...

2018

EPIC Solar Forecasting Task 3 Final Report: Grid-Connected and Embedded PV Fleet Forecasting Accuracy

This report, prepared with an Electric Program Investment Charge (EPIC) fund, describes new methods for improving...

EPIC Solar Forecasting Task 2 Final Report: Data Forecasting Accuracy

This report, prepared with an Electric Program Investment Charge (EPIC) fund, describes the results of research to...

Advancing the Science of Behind-the-Meter PV Forecasting

This presentation discusses how probabilistic forecasting enables electric utilities and grid operators to reduce...

2016

Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

This paper describes a study, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, to evaluate new, state-of-the-art solar...

2014

CSI RD&D Solicitation 3 Final Webinar: Integrating PV into Utility Planning and Operation Tools

Clean Power Research received a California Solar Initiative (CSI) Research, Development, Demonstration and Deployment...

Experience in California with Behind-the-Meter PV Forecasts

SolarAnywhere® FleetView® is generating behind-the-meter PV forecasts in California, enabling utilities and ISOs to...

2013

Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasting: Results for 130,000 PV Systems in California

Lean how SolarAnywhere® FleetView® is being integrated into CAISO planning and operations tools to provide power...

Integrating PV into Utility Planning and Operation Tools

Clean Power Research received a California Solar Initiative (CSI) Research, Development, Demonstration and Deployment...

Forecasting Output for 130,000 PV Systems in California

Lean how SolarAnywhere® FleetView® is being integrated into CAISO planning and operations tools to provide power...

2012

Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasting

Learn how SolarAnywhere® FleetView® can be used for behind-the-meter PV fleet forecasting. Presented at the Utility...

Solar Monitoring, Forecasting and Variability Assessment at SMUD

This paper summarizes the deployment of a 71 station solar monitoring network in Sacramento, Calif., and its use in...

Extending Fleet Forecasting Capability into the Probabilistic Realm

This presentation demonstrates how a new approach to PV fleet forecasting can address the problem of artificially high...

EPIC Solar Forecasting Task 3 Final Report: Grid-Connected and Embedded PV Fleet Forecasting Accuracy

This report, prepared with an Electric Program Investment Charge (EPIC) fund, describes new methods for improving...

EPIC Solar Forecasting Task 2 Final Report: Data Forecasting Accuracy

This report, prepared with an Electric Program Investment Charge (EPIC) fund, describes the results of research to...

Advancing the Science of Behind-the-Meter PV Forecasting

This presentation discusses how probabilistic forecasting enables electric utilities and grid operators to reduce...

Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

This paper describes a study, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, to evaluate new, state-of-the-art solar...

CSI RD&D Solicitation 3 Final Webinar: Integrating PV into Utility Planning and Operation Tools

Clean Power Research received a California Solar Initiative (CSI) Research, Development, Demonstration and Deployment...

Experience in California with Behind-the-Meter PV Forecasts

SolarAnywhere® FleetView® is generating behind-the-meter PV forecasts in California, enabling utilities and ISOs to...

Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasting: Results for 130,000 PV Systems in California

Lean how SolarAnywhere® FleetView® is being integrated into CAISO planning and operations tools to provide power...

Integrating PV into Utility Planning and Operation Tools

Clean Power Research received a California Solar Initiative (CSI) Research, Development, Demonstration and Deployment...

Forecasting Output for 130,000 PV Systems in California

Lean how SolarAnywhere® FleetView® is being integrated into CAISO planning and operations tools to provide power...

Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasting

Learn how SolarAnywhere® FleetView® can be used for behind-the-meter PV fleet forecasting. Presented at the Utility...

Solar Monitoring, Forecasting and Variability Assessment at SMUD

This paper summarizes the deployment of a 71 station solar monitoring network in Sacramento, Calif., and its use in...

Photovoltaic (PV) Solar Energy Output Variability Methodologies

These papers present methodologies for cost-effectively predicting the solar power output variability of high-penetration PV fleets.

2016

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Solar Energy

This paper summarizes and analyzes recent research by the authors and others to understand, characterize, and model...

2012

CSI RD&D Solicitation 1 Final Webinar: Advanced Modeling and Verification for High Penetration PV

In April 2010, Clean Power Research received a California Solar Initiative (CSI) Research, Development, Demonstration...

2011

Determining Storage Reserves for Regulating Solar Variability

This paper describes the initial validation of a method of quantifying PV variability by using satellite-derived solar...

Modeling PV Fleet Output Variability

This paper introduces a novel approach to estimating the maximum short‐term output variability that an arbitrary fleet...

Short-term Irradiance Variability: Station Pair Correlation as a Function of Distance

This article focuses on station pairs, and investigates the correlation of their short-term variability as a function...

PV Power Output Variability: Calculation of Correlation Coefficients Using Satellite Insolation Data

This paper describes analytical methods and tools to quantify PV fleet output variability that can be used by utility...

2010

Parameterization of Site-specific Short-term Irradiance Variability

This article presents a set of empirical models capable of extracting metrics quantifying the short‐term variability...

PV Power Output Variability: Correlation Coefficients

This paper introduces a novel approach to estimate the maximum short‐term output variability that a fleet of PV...

2009

Evaluating PV Fleet Output Variability

This presentation describes methods for evaluating the power output variability of PV fleets, and how that information...

Quantifying PV Power Output Variability

This paper presents a new approach to rigorously quantify power output variability from a fleet of PV systems, ranging...

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Solar Energy

This paper summarizes and analyzes recent research by the authors and others to understand, characterize, and model...

CSI RD&D Solicitation 1 Final Webinar: Advanced Modeling and Verification for High Penetration PV

In April 2010, Clean Power Research received a California Solar Initiative (CSI) Research, Development, Demonstration...

Determining Storage Reserves for Regulating Solar Variability

This paper describes the initial validation of a method of quantifying PV variability by using satellite-derived solar...

Modeling PV Fleet Output Variability

This paper introduces a novel approach to estimating the maximum short‐term output variability that an arbitrary fleet...

Short-term Irradiance Variability: Station Pair Correlation as a Function of Distance

This article focuses on station pairs, and investigates the correlation of their short-term variability as a function...

PV Power Output Variability: Calculation of Correlation Coefficients Using Satellite Insolation Data

This paper describes analytical methods and tools to quantify PV fleet output variability that can be used by utility...

Parameterization of Site-specific Short-term Irradiance Variability

This article presents a set of empirical models capable of extracting metrics quantifying the short‐term variability...

PV Power Output Variability: Correlation Coefficients

This paper introduces a novel approach to estimate the maximum short‐term output variability that a fleet of PV...

Evaluating PV Fleet Output Variability

This presentation describes methods for evaluating the power output variability of PV fleets, and how that information...

Quantifying PV Power Output Variability

This paper presents a new approach to rigorously quantify power output variability from a fleet of PV systems, ranging...

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